FRENTE A AGRESIÓN DE EU, EVO MORALES PIDE A NACIONES DE LA ALBA REUNIÓN URGENTE… DEL CALDEO DE ÁNIMOS DE LAS COREAS y EL CONTEXTO…
Ello, sin perjuicio del cobarde hundimiento del ROKS Cheonan (PCC-772)…
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/22/evo-morales-llama-a-acabar-con-golpes-de-estado/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/25/sarah-palin-tenemos-que-apoyar-a-nuestros-aliados-de-corea-del-norte/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/25/eeuu-ya-tenia-28-500-soldados-en-corea-del-sur-dimite-ministro-de-defensa-de-seul/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/27/corea-del-norte-advierte-a-eeuu-de-consecuencias-imprevisibles-si-traen-portaaviones/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/26/china-advierte-a-estados-unidos-sobre-maniobras-militares-en-penisula-coreana/
"Fidel Castro reitera que Washington hundió al buque Cheonán" *
http://www.radioreloj.cu/index.php/mesa-redonda/785-fidel-castro-reitera-que-washington-hundio-al-buque-cheonan
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/27/alta-tension-en-el-mar-amarillo-comienzan-ejercicios-militares-entre-corea-del-sur-y-eeuu/
---
“Ahora la revolución se hace con votos y no con balas, dice a la guerrilla de las FARC
Pide Evo Morales a naciones de la Alba reunión urgente frente a agresión de EU
El encuentro, para pasar de la provocación a la ofensiva, afirma a medios el presidente boliviano
AFP, DPA Y REUTERS
Periódico La Jornada
Sábado 27 de noviembre de 2010, p. 21
La Paz, 26 de noviembre. El presidente de Bolivia, Evo Morales, reveló hoy que pidió a su par venezolano, Hugo Chávez, llamar a reunión de emergencia de los países de la Alianza Bolivariana de los Pueblos de Nuestra América (Alba) para tomar posición frente a la agresión de Estados Unidos y pasar de la provocación a la ofensiva.
Morales dijo en rueda de prensa –la segunda en 24 horas– que anoche planteé a Chávez que convoque a una reunión de emergencia a los gobiernos de la Alba junto a movimientos sociales.
Señaló el mandatario:Le propuse que sería bueno este fin de año en La Habana o en Caracas, pero la víctima ahora es Venezuela, es el compañero Chávez, es el gobierno, el pueblo venezolano. Aludió así a llamados de legisladores estadunidenses de ultraderecha para aumentar la presión sobre Venezuela y aliados de la Alba.
La influyente congresista republicana Ileana Ros-Lehtinen anunció el miércoles que su país apoya a los venezolanos que buscan rescatar la democracia de las garras de Hugo Chávez, tras una reunión con sectores conservadores latinoamericanos donde se discutió el derrocamiento de gobiernos como los de Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador y Nicaragua.
Cuando nos hemos organizado en la Alba y (este mecanismo) va creciendo, el imperio se asusta e intenta con golpes de Estado como Bolivia en 2008, Honduras en 2009 o Ecuador en 2010, matizó el gobernante boliviano.
Ahora la nueva doctrina del Departamento de Estado es contra la Alba, y algunos de parlamentarios republicanos y demócratas plantean a la Organización de Estados Americanos expulsar y sancionar a los países de la Alba, dijo Morales. Frente a esto urge una reunión de jefes de Estado para tomar posición frente a la agresión y, de la provocación, pasar a la ofensiva, añadió.
El mandatario boliviano, que convalece de una lesión en la pierna, bromeó con los periodistas que se encuentra mejorando para dar un rodillazo al imperio.
La Paz y Washington carecen de embajadores desde 2008 cuando el representante diplomático estadunidense fue expulsado por Morales del país, bajo el cargo de apoyar un movimiento conspirativo de derecha contra su gobierno.
Mientras, Morales volvió a criticar a las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) al acusarla de servir de instrumento de Estados Unidos para garantizar que tenga presencia militar no sólo en Colombia sino en el resto de América Latina.
Dijo que no podía creer que las personas organizadas en las FARC todavía piensen que la lucha armada es un instrumento de liberación, no creo. El mandatario indígena, que en agosto de 2009 llamó a esa guerrilla a hacer una profunda reflexión, sostuvo que ahora la revolución se hace con votos y no con balas.
Por último, el gobernante boliviano denunció que la cumbre de Cancún sobre cambio climático, que iniciará la próxima semana en el balneario mexicano, está amenazada por una visión mercantilista de los países desarrollados.”
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2010/11/27/index.php?section=mundo&article=021n1mun
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/25/evo-agradece-respaldo-de-fidel/
---
CONTINUIDAD DEL KIRCHNERISMO, NO SÓLO ES DESEADA POR “UNA FAMILIA DE 10”…
http://eligio-del-awiizotl.blogspot.com/2010/11/continuidad-del-kirchnerismo-no-solo-es.html
---
“Bajo la Lupa
La triple solución china para la salvación de EU
ALFREDO JALIFE-RAHME
Llama poderosamente la atención la quietud al borde de la ataraxia filosófica que China ostenta más frente a la inocultable derrota de la otrora superpotencia unipolar que ante su óptimo posicionamiento en el largo plazo en el tablero de ajedrez mundial.
Ante todo, vale la pena una pregunta metafísica: ¿Tiene salvación Estados Unidos?
Respuesta categórica: no.
No es ningún sarcasmo cruel, pero Xia Bin, connotado economista y miembro del Comité Monetario del Banco del Pueblo de China (su banco central), en una entrevista con The People’s Daily (26/11/10), sugirió en forma muy seria tres soluciones para salvar la economía estadunidense:
1. Recortar su gasto militar.
2. Vender su oro.
3. Vender su alta tecnología... a China.
Con una deuda impagable que anda en 600 por ciento (¡así, con tres dígitos!) en proporción a su PIB, según el célebre reporte del banco suizo Wegelin (ver Bajo la Lupa, 21/10/09 y 8/9/10), la otrora superpotencia unipolar se encuentra en insolvencia, sin contar el agujero negro de sus derivados financieros –los ominosos hedge funds y los CDS (credit default swaps que apuestan aviesamente a la quiebra ajena de los países)– que operan hoy más frenéticamente que antes del 15 de septiembre de 2008 (hito de la quiebra oficial de la globalización financierista neoliberal) y equivalen virtualmente a 15 veces el PIB global.
No existe dinero humano que alcance para salvar a Estados Unidos de su insolvencia real y virtual.
Dejaremos de lado la imposibilidad humana de una salvación, ya no se diga una redención de la otrora superpotencia unipolar, hoy en decadencia acelerada, y pese a ello desmenuzaremos para beneficio del análisis la viabilidad de las propuestas del economista chino Xia Bin.
En su exordio, Xia Bin fustigó con justa razón la impresión masiva de dólares por la Reserva Federal (el efecto Bernanke) como apuesta de casino, ya que no estimulará el desempleo ni las exportaciones estadunidenses.
A su juicio, el dólar, la mayor divisa de reserva global, se encuentra fuera de todo control y su irresponsable impresión masiva ha contribuido no solamente en la crisis financiera global, sino también a socavar tanto la fortaleza del billete verde como de su economía en el largo plazo.
Culpó a Estados Unidos, también con justa razón, de ser el responsable de la presente crisis financiera global al haber creado burbujas bursátiles con excesivo dinero fácil, por lo que debía dedicarse a resolver su doble déficit de cuenta corriente y de cuentas de capital mediante la triple solución que propone.
En primer lugar, pese al desvanecimiento de su poder, es necesaria la reducción del gasto militar de EU, lo cual le ha permitido invertir pesadamente (sic) en su presupuesto militar y jugar un papel relevante en la estabilidad global y geopolítica.
No especifica ni sugiere monto alguno.
De acuerdo con SIPRI (junio 2010), el gasto militar estadunidense asciende a más de 663 mil millones de dólares (4.3 por ciento de su PIB), frente al segundo lugar, China, con menos de 100 mil millones (2.5 por ciento de su PIB). En forma anómala, los más de 663 mil millones de dólares de gasto militar de Estados Unidos equivalen al gasto del restante de los países en su conjunto.
En realidad, el gasto militar estadunidense representa el doble –es decir, 8.6 por ciento de su PIB–, ya que muchos gastos son escondidos contablemente detrás de rubros de investigación universitaria y extracurricular.
¿Cuántas de las 865 bases militares (ver Bajo la Lupa, 16/8/09) estará dispuesto a desmantelar Estados Unidos –incluido su centro de espionaje en Paseo de la Reforma 265 (no confundir con el Edificio Omega de Paseo de la Reforma 435, presunta sede diplomática de los servicios secretos de Israel)? ¿Qué porcentaje de sus casi 1.33 millones de millones (trillones en anglosajón) de dólares dejarán recortar sus poderosas fuerzas internas de interés?
Tampoco el recorte militar es una cifra impactante cuando se compara la más reciente impresión de billetes por más de 600 mil millones de dólares: el segundo efecto Bernanke.
En realidad, todo el gasto militar de Estados Unidos, el visible y el oculto, equivale al doble del más reciente efecto Bernanke. No da para tanto, para salvar a EU.
Bob Gates, secretario del Pentágono a punto de abandonar el barco que dirige Obama, ha intentado reducir en forma infructuosa el dispendio del gasto militar en algunos rubros (como el mirífico avión JSF).
El problema nodal radica en la bidireccionalidad del gasto militar con las cotizaciones en la bolsa de valores de las principales trasnacionales de Estados Unidos. De ahí que los banksters (banqueros gangsteriles) de Wall Street y sus émulos de la city alienten desesperadamente una guerra mundial que no desean sus militares y que primero dudamos que ganen. Segundo, resuelva su agujero negro bursátil de los derivados financieros.
La segunda propuesta de Xia Bin versa sobre la venta de reservas oficiales de oro de Estados Unidos, que poseería más de 8 mil toneladas. Si EU desea mayor capital para su recuperación económica sin incurrir en mayor déficit fiscal, entonces lo óptimo sería vender parte de su oro. No especifica ni sugiere cantidad alguna.
Aún vendiendo todo su oro, hoy a casi mil 400 dólares la onza, Estados Unidos no salva su alma de los avernos financieros.
Se nos pasaba: ¿dispone tangiblemente de 8 mil toneladas de oro cuando el representante texano por el Partido Republicano Ron Paul, padre de Rand, uno de los principales líderes del Partido del Té, ha reclamado una auditoría de las tenencias auríferas de la muy mendaz Reserva Federal para verificar sus asertos probablemente inventados (ver Bajo la Lupa, 1/9/10)?
Y si Estados Unidos no poseyera la cantidad de oro que pretende ostentar, ¿qué propone Xia Bin como alternativa? ¿La venta de la luna, que no es propiedad estadunidense?
La tercera propuesta de Xia Bin suena interesante cuando Obama pretende duplicar las exportaciones en los próximos cinco años para requilibrar su balance comercial, un sueño guajiro que ha sido desechado por los mismos economistas estadunidenses, a quienes ha faltado agregar la enorme salvedad de Xia Bin: EU posee gran cantidad de tecnologías avanzadas que rehúsa vender por razones de seguridad.
Los chinos suelen ser muy bondadosamente ingenuos o refinadamente perversos, y Xia Bin no es la excepción cuando asesta que la llave es que Estados Unidos debe confiar (¡súper sic!) en que el ascenso de China es pacífico, después de que los dos países hayan construido una mutua confianza estratégica, lo que pudiera hacer posible que Estados Unidos exporte sus productos de alta tecnología a China.
¿Cuántas y en cuánto estará inclinado Estados Unidos a vender sus tecnologías avanzadas?
No faltarán algunas gangas de la presente tecnología estadunidense en maduración terminal (satelital, misilística, nuclear e informática) que China compre a precios de remate, pero suena muy temerario que se haya atrevido a solicitar la tecnología avanzada estadunidense –que inferimos versa desde la nanotecnología, pasando por la robótica, hasta el HAARP, proyecto militar de ondas de alta frecuencia aplicado a la parte inferior de la atmósfera.
Por vías laberínticas, Xia Bin prácticamente pide con una exquisita suavidad la claudicación tecnológica de Estados Unidos –para no decir su rendición sin condiciones–, por lo que es más factible que la otrora superpotencia unipolar prefiera aventurarse a una enésima guerra mundial, a sabiendas que la va a perder, que a ceder el último arsenal que le queda: su I&D de ensueño.
¿Acabará maltratando China a Estados Unidos como esta última ha lastimado sin piedad a México desde 1836?”
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2010/11/28/index.php?section=opinion&article=018o1pol&partner=rss
---
“U.S. lawmakers seek China's help with North Korea
Several Senate leaders join Secretary of State Clinton in seeking a stronger role for China in containing North Korean aggression.
http://www.latimes.com/media/photo/2010-11/57936070.jpg
A South Korean protester stands vigil at a rally against the U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise, in Seoul, South Korea on Sunday, Nov. 28, 2010. (Ahn Young-joon / AP)
By Noam N. Levey, Los Angeles Times
9:18 AM PST, November 28, 2010
Reporting from Washington
With tensions rising on the Korean peninsula, several leading U.S. lawmakers Sunday called on China to play a more constructive role in restraining North Korea.
"Unfortunately, China is not behaving as a responsible world power," Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said on CNN's "State of the Union."
"They could bring the North Korean economy to its knees if they wanted to. And I cannot believe that the Chinese should, in a mature fashion, not find it in their interest to restrain North Korea. So far, they are not."
Chinese officials Sunday called for an emergency resumption of the so-called six-party talks involving North and South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia.
China made the request as the United States and South Korea began previously planned military exercises in the seas around the Korean peninsula.
North Korea — which last week shelled a South Korean island, killing four — has condemned the maneuvers, which involve a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier battle group led by the nuclear-powered carrier USS George Washington.
Appearing on "Fox News Sunday," Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) called the Chinese proposal for renewed diplomatic talks a "good first step."
But she and other lawmakers from both parties, including Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, also urged a continued strong stand against North Korean belligerence.
Assistant Senate Majority Leader Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) said he had talked with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Saturday about China's key role in reducing tensions.
"We both agree that China can play a very valuable role here in trying to bring under control a situation which is very volatile," Durbin said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
noam.levey@latimes.com
Copyright © 2010, Los Angeles Times”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-lawmakers-korea-20101129,0,1146438.story
---
China pressed over Iran and North Korea's nuclear trade
Embassy cables show US urging Beijing to stop shipments amid claims Chinese firms may be supplying materials
• Simon Tisdall
• guardian.co.uk, Sunday 28 November 2010 18.21 GMT
• Article history
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/11/24/1290609475962/A-test-in-Iran-during-200-007.jpg
A test in Iran during 2006 of the Shahab-3 missile, built with North Korean technology. Photograph: Sipa Press/Rex Features
The US insisted that China act "urgently" to halt a transshipment of ballistic missile components from North Korea to Iran via Beijing and complained that at least 10 similar missile-related deliveries had been allowed to proceed unhindered.
The US also accused Chinese firms in May this year of supplying Iran with a key chemical weapons precursor and assistance with operating a chemical manufacturing plant.
An internal cable dated 3 November 2007 and signed by Condoleezza Rice, the then US secretary of state, says a North Korean cargo of missile jet vanes destined for the Shahid Bagheri Industrial Group, which runs Iran's solid-fuelled ballistic missile programme, was due to be shipped to Iran from Beijing on the following day aboard a scheduled Iran Air flight.
In what is termed an "urgent action request", Rice instructed the US ambassador to raise the issue "at the earliest opportunity" and "at the highest level possible" to persuade the Chinese authorities to halt the delivery. Rice told the envoy to remind the Chinese that George Bush had personally raised the shipment with the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, at a recent meeting – an indication of the importance Washington attached to the issue.
"The [state] department is seeking both immediate action ... and a strategic approach with regards to this critical issue," Rice's cable states. "We now have information that the goods will be shipped on 4 November and insist on a substantive response from China ... We assess that the best way to prevent these shipments in the future is for Chinese authorities to take action ... that will make the Beijing airport a less hospitable transfer point."
Washington's worries about Iran's conventionally armed short- and medium-range ballistic missiles are linked to suspicions that the missiles could be used to deliver a nuclear warhead should Iran develop the capability.
It is not known whether the US demarche induced the Chinese to halt the 4 November 2007 delivery, but regardless of that Iran's missile programme is making rapid advances. In May last year Iran successfully tested the Sejjil-2 two-stage solid fuel missile. Its range of up to 2,500km means it could reach Israel, Arab countries and parts of Europe. Both the Sejjil and the liquid-fuelled Shahab-3 missile, derived from a North Korean design, are theoretically nuclear capable.
Although North Korea continues to resist international anti-proliferation efforts, the US has put pressure on China to curtail its missile-related collaboration with Iran, which dates from the 1980s. The cable refers specifically to Iran's attempts to obtain tungsten-copper alloy plates from China's Dalian Sunny Industries.
In another cable, sent by secretary of state Hillary Clinton in May[205348], the US said it was concerned that exports by named Chinese firms "could be used for or diverted to a CW [chemical weapons] programme". Clinton asks whether the suspect transfers were approved by the Chinese government and warns that sanctions may be imposed.
"We request that the Chinese government take all steps necessary to investigate this matter and to prevent Iran from acquiring dual-use equipment and technology that could be used in its CW program."
Analysis of the Iranian missile threat last month by Arms Control Today suggested US pressure on Beijing has produced mixed results. "In a November 2000 commitment to the US, China pledged that it would not assist 'in any way, any country in the development of ballistic missiles that can be used to deliver nuclear weapons' ... Nonetheless the US state department assesses that Chinese companies have continued to assist Iran's ballistic missile programme," it said.
In an almost desperate bid to get Beijing's attention the cable contains a so-called non-paper – an unofficial, non-binding message – for presentation to the Chinese. With American frustration barely concealed, the non-paper notes the US has raised its concerns with Chinese officials on numerous occasions and lists at least 10 instances in which it claims North Korean shipments of ballistic missiles parts to Iran passed unimpeded through Beijing.
"We believe that this trade will continue to utilise regularly scheduled commercial passenger flights ... We urge you to prevent such shipments via whatever action you deem appropriate," it says.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/28/china-iran-north-korea-nuclear
---
• Backgrounder
Related Materials
o U.S. Surveys Shattered North Korea Policy
Analysis Brief
Updated: October 10, 2006
o North Korea's Succession Poses New Challenges--Part II
By Scott A. Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies
Op-Ed
October 4, 2010
o Reassessing China's Role in North Korea
By Nicole E. Lewis, National Intelligence Fellow
Expert Brief
June 22, 2010
o CRS: North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy Analysis
By Dick K. Nanto and Emma Chanlett-Avery
Must Read
January 22, 2010
o Embracing the ROK Economically and the DPRK Politically
By Scott A. Snyder, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and See-won Byun, Asia Foundation
Article
Vol. 11, No. 4 (Jan. 2010)
See Also
China, North Korea
Academic Modules
Academic Module: Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea
Blog: Asia Unbound
o China Hijacked the Internet, Maybe
o What China Says about the United States
o Chronicle of a Disaster Foretold
The China-North Korea Relationship
Author: Jayshree Bajoria, Senior Staff Writer
Updated: October 7, 2010
o Introduction
o Strong Allies
o Pyongyang's Gains
o China's Priorities
o Beijing's Leverage
o Washington's Role
o Looking Forward
________________________________________
Introduction
China is North Korea's most important ally; biggest trading partner; and main source of food, arms, and fuel. China has helped sustain Kim Jong-Il's regime and opposed harsh international economic sanctions in the hope of avoiding regime collapse and an uncontrolled influx of refugees across its eight-hundred-mile border with North Korea. After Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006, experts say that China has reconsidered the nature of its alliance to include both pressure and inducements. North Korea's second nuclear test in May 2009 further complicated its relationship with China, which has played a central role in the Six Party Talks, the multilateral framework aimed at denuclearizing North Korea. CFR's Scott Snyder and See-won Byun of the Asia Foundation argue the nuclear tests highlight the tensions (PDF) between China's "emerging role as a global actor with increasing international responsibilities and prestige and a commitment to North Korea as an ally with whom China shares longstanding historical and ideological ties." Beijing continues to have more leverage over Pyongyang than any other nation, say analysts. The economic leverage in particular, some point out, has only grown as a result of North Korea's declining relations with South Korea and the international community. But most experts agree that Beijing is unlikely to exercise its leverage given its concerns regarding regional stability and the uncertainty surrounding regime succession in North Korea.
Strong Allies
China has supported North Korea ever since Chinese fighters flooded onto the Korean peninsula to fight for their comrades in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) in 1950. Since the Korean War divided the peninsula between the North and South, China has lent political and economic backing to North Korea's leaders: Kim Il-Sung and his son and successor, Kim Jong-Il.
In recent years, China has been one of the authoritarian regime's few allies. But this long-standing relationship suffered a strain when Pyongyang tested a nuclear weapon in October 2006 and China agreed to UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which imposed sanctions on Pyongyang. By signing off on this resolution--as well as earlier UN sanctions that followed the DPRK's July 2006 missile tests--Beijing departed from its traditional relationship with North Korea, changing from a tone of diplomacy to one of punishment. China also agreed to stricter sanctions after Pyongyang's second nuclear test in May 2009. Alan Romberg, a former U.S. State Department official with the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, told TIME, "Pyongyang has spit in the [People's Republic of China's] eye." Despite their long alliance, experts say Beijing does not control Pyongyang. "In general, Americans tend to overestimate the influence China has over North Korea," says Daniel Pinkston, a Northeast Asia expert at the International Crisis Group.
Some experts say China's frustrations with the Kim Jong-Il regime seem to be growing, due to Pyongyang's continued brinkmanship, the regime's succession plans, and North Korea's growing economic crisis. China refused to take a stance against North Korea, despite evidence that Pyongyang sunk a South Korean naval vessel in March 2010. But in meetings with Kim following the incident, Chinese President Hu Jintao asked Kim to refrain from future provocations, says John S. Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Hu also reportedly insisted on long-overdue market reforms (FT), notes Aidan Foster-Carter, a Korea expert at Leeds University.
At the same time, China has too much at stake in North Korea to halt or withdraw its support entirely. "The idea that the Chinese would turn their backs on the North Koreans is clearly wrong," says CFR Senior Fellow Adam Segal. Beijing only agreed to UN Resolution 1718 after revisions removed requirements for tough economic sanctions beyond those targeting luxury goods, and China's trade with North Korea has continued to increase. Bilateral trade between China and North Korea reached $2.79 billion in 2008, up 41.3 percent compared to 2007. Park writes that much of China's economic interactions with North Korea are not actually prohibited by the current UN sanctions regime, as Beijing characterizes them as economic development and humanitarian activities. China's enforcement of the UN sanctions is also unclear, says a January 2010 report (PDF) from the U.S. Congressional Research Service, which notes that Chinese exports of banned luxury goods averaged around $11 million per month in 2009.
Pyongyang's Gains
Pyongyang is economically dependent on China, which provides most of its food and energy supplies. Nicholas Eberstadt, a consultant at the World Bank, says that since the early 1990s, China has served as North Korea's chief food supplier and has accounted for nearly 90 percent of its energy imports. By some estimates, China provides 80 percent of North Korea's consumer goods and 45 percent of its food.
North Korea's economic dependence on China is rapidly increasing, as indicated by a significant trade imbalance. Snyder notes that in 2008, Chinese imports amounted to $2.03 billion, while exports to China including coal and iron ore totaled $750 million. Some experts see the $1.25 billion trade deficit as an indirect Chinese subsidy, given that North Korea cannot finance its trade deficit through borrowing.
"In general, Americans tend to overestimate the influence China has over North Korea." – Daniel Pinkston, International Crisis Group
China also provides aid directly to Pyongyang. "It is widely believed that Chinese food aid is channeled to the military," (PDF) reports the Congressional Research Service. That allows the World Food Program's food aid to be targeted at the general population "without risk that the military-first policy or regime stability would be undermined by foreign aid policies of other countries." China is also a strong political ally. "As an authoritarian regime that reformed, they understand what Kim Jong-Il is most concerned with--survival," Segal says.
China's Priorities
China's support for Pyongyang ensures a friendly nation on its northeastern border, and provides a buffer zone between China and democratic South Korea, which is home to around twenty-nine thousand U.S. troops and marines. This allows China to reduce its military deployment in its northeast and "focus more directly on the issue of Taiwanese independence," Shen Dingli of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai writes in China Security (PDF). North Korea's allegiance is important to Beijing as a bulwark against U.S. military dominance of the region as well as against the rise of Japan's military.
China also gains economically from its association with North Korea; growing numbers of Chinese firms are investing in North Korea and gaining concessions like preferable trading terms and port operations. Chinese companies have made major investments aimed at developing mineral resources in North Korea's northern region.
The January 2010 Congressional Research Service report says this "is part of a Chinese strategy (PDF)" of stabilizing the border region it shares with North Korea, lessening the pressure on North Koreans to migrate to China, and raising the general standard of living in North Korea. USIP's Park writes these economic development plans also further China's national interests in developing its own chronically poor northeastern provinces by securing mineral and energy resources across the border.
http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/interactives/teases/CG_Korea_Tease300_200.jpg
"For the Chinese, stability and the avoidance of war are the top priorities," says Daniel Sneider, the associate director for research at Stanford's Asia-Pacific Research Center. "From that point of view, the North Koreans are a huge problem for them, because Pyongyang could trigger a war on its own." The specter of hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees flooding into China is a huge worry for Beijing. "The Chinese are most concerned about the collapse of North Korea leading to chaos on the border," CFR's Segal says. If North Korea does provoke a war with the United States, China and South Korea would bear the brunt of any military confrontation on the Korean peninsula. Yet both those countries have been hesitant about pushing Pyongyang too hard, for fear of making Kim's regime collapse. The flow of refugees into China is already a problem: China has promised Pyongyang that it will repatriate North Koreans escaping across the border, but invites condemnation from human rights groups when sending them back to the DPRK. Jing-dong Yuan of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in California says Beijing began its construction of a barbed wire fence along this border in 2006 for that reason.
Experts say China has also been ambiguous on the question of its commitment to intervene for the defense of North Korea in case of military conflict. The 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance says China is obliged to defend North Korea against unprovoked aggression. But Jaewoo Choo, assistant professor of Chinese foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in South Korea, writes in Asian Survey that "China conceives itself to have the right to make an authoritative interpretation of the principle for intervention" (PDF) in the treaty. As a result of changes in regional security in a post-Cold War world, he writes, "China now places more value on national interest, over alliances blinded by ideology." But, he argues, Chinese ambiguity deters others from taking military action against Pyongyang.
Beijing's Leverage
Beijing has been successful in bringing North Korean officials to the negotiating table at the Six Party Talks many times. "It's clear that the Chinese have enormous leverage over North Korea in many respects," Sneider, of Stanford's Asia-Pacific Research Center, says. "But can China actually try to exercise that influence without destabilizing the regime? Probably not." Pinkston says that for all of North Korea's growing economic ties with China, Kim still makes up his own mind: "At the end of the day, China has little influence over the military decisions."
"As an authoritarian regime that reformed, they understand what Kim Jong-Il is most concerned with--survival." – Adam Segal
Also, China does not wish to use its leverage except for purposes consistent with its policy objectives and strategic interests, say experts. Choo writes, "After all, it is not about securing influence over North Korean affairs but is about peaceful management of the relationship with the intent to preserve the status quo of the peninsula." This CFR.org Crisis Guide offers an in-depth analysis of the dispute on the Korean peninsula.
Washington's Role
The United States has pushed North Korea to verifiably and irreversibly give up its nuclear weapons program in return for aid and diplomatic benefits, and eventually normal diplomatic relations with Washington. Experts say Washington and Beijing have very different views on the issue. "Washington believes in using pressure to influence North Korea to change its behavior, while Chinese diplomats and scholars have a much more negative view of sanctions and pressure tactics," Pinkston says. "They tend to see public measures as humiliating and counterproductive."
However, China and the United do share common interests, including containing North Korea's nuclear program and preventing South Korea and Japan from going nuclear, say some experts. A regional partnership involving the United States and the countries of Northeast Asia, including China "remains the best vehicle . . . for building stable relationships on and around the Korean peninsula," writes CFR Senior Fellow Sheila A. Smith
Looking Forward
"Everyone who deals with North Korea recognizes [it] as a very unstable actor," Sneider says. However, some experts say North Korea is acting assertively both in its relationship with China and on the larger world stage. "The North Koreans are developing a much more realist approach to their foreign policy," Pinkston says. "They're saying imbalances of power are dangerous and the United States has too much power--so by increasing their own power they're helping to balance out world stability. It's neorealism straight out of an international relations textbook."
Bilateral trade between China and North Korea reached $2.79 billion in 2008, up 41.3 percent compared to 2007.
And even though China may be angry at North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship, analysts say it will avoid moves that could cause a sudden collapse of the regime. Given the competition for influence in preparation for the eventual passing of a physically weak Kim Jong-Il, China may feel even more restrained from pressuring North Korea for fear of alienating a future power base.
But Asian military affairs expert Andrew Scobell writes, "No action by China should be ruled out where North Korea is concerned." According to Scobell, Beijing might stop propping up Pyongyang and allow North Korea to fail if it believed a unified Korea under Seoul would be more favorably disposed toward Beijing. A January 2008 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the U.S. Institute of Peace, two Washington-based think tanks, says China has its own contingency plans (PDF) to dispatch troops to North Korea in case of instability. According to the report, the Chinese army could be sent into North Korea on missions to keep order if unrest triggers broader violence, including attacks on nuclear facilities in the North or South.
Esther Pan and Carin Zissis contributed to this Backgrounder.
Weigh in on this issue by emailing CFR.org. "
http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/chinanorth_korea_relationship.html
---
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&site=&source=hp&q=FIDEIIUS+FARC&btnG=Google+Search&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=FIDEIIUS+FARC&gs_rfai=CD4_GCp3yTJ3EB57SyQT7ycCdAwAAAKoEBU_QsyDW&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=ELIGIO+DEL+AWIIZOTL+FARC&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=TONATIUHGALVEZ+FARC&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=TONATIUHGALVEZ+FARC&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=FIDEIIUS+sintonizar+la+frecuencia+y+a+fajarse+la+quena+al+cinto&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=FIDEIIUS+sintonizar+la+frecuencia+y+a+fajarse+la+quena+al+cinto&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=ELIGIO+DEL+AWIIZOTL+sintonizar+la+frecuencia+y+a+fajarse+la+quena+al+cinto&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=ELIGIO+DEL+AWIIZOTL+sintonizar+la+frecuencia+y+a+fajarse+la+quena+al+cinto&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=FIDEIIUS+Colombia&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=FIDEIIUS+Colombia&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=FIDEIIUS+Alvaro+Uribe+&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=FIDEIIUS+Alvaro+Uribe+&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
*)
http://www.google.com/#sclient=psy&hl=en&q=ROKS+CHEONAN+PCC-772&aq=f&aqi=g1&aql=&oq=ROKS+CHEONAN+PCC-772&gs_rfai=&psj=1&fp=ed68904dd3283f54
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ROKS+CHEONAN+PCC-772&aq=f
---------------------------------
"El resistirse a lo irresistible no siempre fortalece a quienes se creen irresistibles, sí, a aquell@s que ‘no mandan obedeciendo a sus mandantes’… Fideiius.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3JI-axaRF4
http://cpj.org/killed/
Centro de Alerta para la Defensa de los Pueblos
Investigación, análisis, documentación y denuncias sobre la injerencia y subversión contra los pueblos de América Latina
http://www.centrodealerta.org/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cec34OOdnRA
http://www.cubadebate.cu/series/resistencia-palestina/
"Noam Chomsky*: Estados Unidos es el mayor terrorista del mundo..."
Institute Professor and professor emeritus of linguistics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology*
http://www.semana.com/noticias-mundo/parte-colombia-robada-roosevelt/142043.aspx
http://eligio-del-awiizotl.blogspot.com/2010/07/noam-chomsky-estados-unidos-es-el-mayor.html
http://www.chomsky.info/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/categoria/autores/eva-golinger/
http://www.patriagrande.com.ve/temas/internacionales/los-gringos-se-robaron-el-dinero-de-las-ventas-de-petroleo-en-irak/
EEUU despilfarró miles de millones de dólares del area social de Irak
http://www.aporrea.org/tiburon/n164470.html
http://www.josecouso.info/
http://eligio-del-awiizotl.blogspot.com/2010/07/httpwikileaksorg-could-become-as.html
http://www.iraqbodycount.org/
“We don’t do body counts”.- General Tommy Franks
http://www.icasualties.org/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/reflexiones-fidel/2010/08/03/emplazamiento-al-presidente-de-estados-unidos/
"Hey, bad guys: If it is certain that you in God trust, you should not be afraid, just let the music play…!”. FIDEIIUS (Fideiius).
http://eligio-del-awiizotl.blogspot.com/2010/08/911-naves-que-impactaron-las-torres.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6NVnKFyY24
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyoEYCmEO_o
ACCESO AL AGUA POTABLE, DECLARADO DERECHO FUNDAMENTAL: TRIUNFO DE LA HUMANIDAD A INSTANCIA DE EVO MORALES, C. PRESIDENTE CONSTITUCIONAL DE LA REPúBLICA DE BOLIVIA…
http://eligio-del-awiizotl.blogspot.com/2010/07/acceso-al-agua-potable-declarado.html
Perseguido por EEUU: Camarógrafo estadounidense que filmó imágenes del 11/9 enfrenta extradición
http://www.aporrea.org/internacionales/n164273.html
The Washington Post: Estados Unidos es el vergonzoso suministrador de armas al narcotráfico
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/09/13/the-washington-post-estados-unidos-es-el-vergonzoso-suministrador-de-armas-al-narcotrafico/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJGyiPrCF2Q
http://wikileaks.org/
http://www.cubadebate.cu/opinion/2010/10/02/eeuu-retrasa-la-salida-del-ejercito-ciberespacial-pero-no-se-entusiasmen-demasiado/
*)
"Tres generaciones se han echado a perder por mi culpa: Rius"
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2009/01/18/index.php?section=cultura&article=a02n1cul
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxHeqzXpkjM
http://www.cubadebate.cu/noticias/2010/11/19/galardonado-lula-con-el-premio-indira-gandhi-de-la-paz-2010/
http://www.jornada.unam.mx
A FREE K’
No comments:
Post a Comment